{ "schemaVersion": 1, "league": "cfb", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "role": "ROLLING_PREGAME_SATURDAY_STAGE", "status": "SATURDAY_FULL_SLATE_STAGED", "observedAt": "2026-10-21T22:04:30Z", "canonicalInfluence": false, "canonicalPromotionAuthorized": false, "foundationSource": "cfb/research-locks/week-08-foundation-full.json", "foundationLockDigest": "72d0aa99176904f681264e69f57260152607914f712a1686d2cdaaf89af3115b", "benchmarkSource": "cfb/benchmarks/week-08-sagarin-full.json", "marketLockSource": "cfb/research-market-locks/week-08-foundation-market.json", "marketPolicy": "Direct FanDuel/DraftKings publication locks remain pending until the adaptive final-window process. Early public sportsbook observations are context only and cannot change frozen projections.", "policy": { "pregameOnly": true, "preserveFrozenFoundation": true, "preserveProjectionDigests": true, "week8ResultsCannotTuneLaterWeek8Games": true, "marketsBenchmarksPersonnelWeatherAreNonCanonicalUnlessValidatedAndPromoted": true, "unknownStaysUnknown": true, "gradingDeferredUntilWeekComplete": true }, "summary": { "saturdayGames": 44, "highPriority": 11, "mediumPriority": 10, "routinePriority": 23, "centralProjectionChanges": 0 }, "riskMethod": "Prioritize large frozen-foundation vs Sagarin margin disagreement, winner-direction disagreement, early sportsbook direction reversal or major line gap, verified QB/personnel change, unusual travel/rest, and potentially material weather. Priority never implies a manual point adjustment.", "highPriorityDeepPass": [ { "gameId": "2026-10-24-OREGON-ILLINOIS", "foundationMarginHome": -3.127873269027198, "foundationTotal": 54.184128282137195, "sagarinMarginHome": -10.800000000000008, "marginDisagreementPoints": 7.6721, "directionDisagreement": false, "publicMarketContext": "Oregon roughly -10.5 to -12.5; total roughly 50.5-52.5 in early public snapshots.", "materialContext": "Illinois officially says Katin Houser will miss an extended period with a broken hand; true freshman Michael Clayton II relieved him and is the key QB recheck. Oregon official game notes confirm the road matchup but no manual QB adjustment is authorized.", "weatherContext": "Final stadium-hourly NWS capture still required.", "decision": "PRESERVE_FROZEN_PROJECTION_HIGH_PRIORITY_RECHECK" }, { "gameId": "2026-10-24-BOSTONCOLLEGE-GEORGIATECH", "foundationMarginHome": 1.9221563073829344, "foundationTotal": 49.0064559320619, "sagarinMarginHome": 9.849999999999998, "marginDisagreementPoints": 7.9278, "directionDisagreement": false, "publicMarketContext": "Georgia Tech about -4.5 with total around 49.5 on current public boards.", "materialContext": "Boston College official Week 8 notes list Mason McKenzie as the offensive leader. Georgia Tech backfield availability, including Justice Haynes, requires authoritative recheck; no third-party injury inference will alter the frozen model.", "weatherContext": "Atlanta stadium-level final forecast still required.", "decision": "PRESERVE_FROZEN_PROJECTION_HIGH_PRIORITY_RECHECK" }, { "gameId": "2026-10-24-UTAHSTATE-TEXASSTATE", "foundationMarginHome": 7.908924829465008, "foundationTotal": 51.641882123742576, "sagarinMarginHome": 14.280000000000005, "marginDisagreementPoints": 6.3711, "directionDisagreement": false, "publicMarketContext": "Texas State roughly -8.5 to -11.5; total roughly 58.5-59.5 across early public sources, creating notable market dispersion.", "materialContext": "Utah State official game notes are current; no verified starting-QB shock was captured in this pass. Travel to San Marcos is standard road context.", "weatherContext": "NWS San Marcos: mostly sunny around mid-80s with southeast 5-10 mph and possible gusts near 20 mph; final-hour recheck required.", "decision": "PRESERVE_FROZEN_PROJECTION_HIGH_PRIORITY_RECHECK" }, { "gameId": "2026-10-24-BOWLINGGREEN-BUFFALO", "foundationMarginHome": 11.418702149383087, "foundationTotal": 49.2817471121819, "sagarinMarginHome": 5.839999999999999, "marginDisagreementPoints": 5.5787, "directionDisagreement": false, "publicMarketContext": "DraftKings currently around Buffalo -3, total 44.5; other early books have shown Buffalo -4.5.", "materialContext": "Buffalo official preview says Jason Wright has taken over meaningful QB work since Elijah Holmes exited at FIU; Buffalo is also leaning heavily on Messiah Burch. Bowling Green official preview is captured for the road game.", "weatherContext": "NWS Buffalo: sunny near 62 with calm wind in the current Saturday forecast.", "decision": "PRESERVE_FROZEN_PROJECTION_HIGH_PRIORITY_RECHECK" }, { "gameId": "2026-10-24-OKLAHOMA-MISSISSIPPISTATE", "foundationMarginHome": 4.244409646580856, "foundationTotal": 49.357204014801226, "sagarinMarginHome": -1.2499999999999973, "marginDisagreementPoints": 5.4944, "directionDisagreement": true, "publicMarketContext": "Current public books generally make Oklahoma roughly -3.5 to -4.5; totals around 44.5-46.5.", "materialContext": "Oklahoma is publicly sticking with QB John Mateer despite recent turnover issues. This is a genuine foundation-vs-benchmark-vs-market direction disagreement, not a reason to rewrite the frozen number.", "weatherContext": "NWS Starkville: sunny mid-70s with light east/southeast wind; low impact currently.", "decision": "PRESERVE_FROZEN_PROJECTION_HIGH_PRIORITY_RECHECK" }, { "gameId": "2026-10-24-HAWAII-NORTHERNILLINOIS", "foundationMarginHome": 1.3124099256545492, "foundationTotal": 43.25662999462328, "sagarinMarginHome": -4.069999999999998, "marginDisagreementPoints": 5.3824, "directionDisagreement": true, "publicMarketContext": "DraftKings currently around Hawai'i -4, total 47.5.", "materialContext": "Hawai'i official preview confirms Micah Alejado remains the offensive centerpiece. Hawai'i also documents a 4,000-plus-mile trip and a poor historical record in such travel spots. Travel remains context only unless validated.", "weatherContext": "Current NWS DeKalb outlook is mostly sunny around low-70s; final hourly wind/temperature capture required.", "decision": "PRESERVE_FROZEN_PROJECTION_HIGH_PRIORITY_RECHECK" }, { "gameId": "2026-10-24-USC-WISCONSIN", "foundationMarginHome": 5.832789576936264, "foundationTotal": 53.63381854036139, "sagarinMarginHome": 0.9400000000000004, "marginDisagreementPoints": 4.8928, "directionDisagreement": false, "publicMarketContext": "Market currently favors USC about -2.5 to -3 with total near 49.5, reversing the frozen foundation's winner direction.", "materialContext": "Official game centers continue to list Jayden Maiava as USC's passing leader and Colton Joseph as Wisconsin's passing/rushing leader. Late availability still requires recheck.", "weatherContext": "NWS Madison: partly sunny near 71 with south wind 10-15 mph; monitor wind but no unvalidated adjustment.", "decision": "PRESERVE_FROZEN_PROJECTION_HIGH_PRIORITY_RECHECK" }, { "gameId": "2026-10-24-RUTGERS-NORTHWESTERN", "foundationMarginHome": 19.708140910213945, "foundationTotal": 59.080356264022484, "sagarinMarginHome": 15.169999999999991, "marginDisagreementPoints": 4.5381, "directionDisagreement": false, "publicMarketContext": "Northwestern roughly -16 to -16.5 with total around 58-58.5.", "materialContext": "Rutgers official game notes are current. Northwestern enters 5-1 and has remained stable at quarterback in current public/official context; no verified late QB shock captured.", "weatherContext": "Current Evanston Saturday outlook is mostly sunny near upper-60s; final hourly capture required.", "decision": "PRESERVE_FROZEN_PROJECTION_HIGH_PRIORITY_RECHECK" }, { "gameId": "2026-10-24-OLEMISS-TEXAS", "foundationMarginHome": 2.3232484316823943, "foundationTotal": 52.08868358025373, "sagarinMarginHome": 6.390000000000003, "marginDisagreementPoints": 4.0668, "directionDisagreement": false, "publicMarketContext": "Early/current public sources range from Texas roughly -3.5 to -6.5 with totals about 52.5-53.5; line-source dispersion itself is flagged for direct-book refresh.", "materialContext": "Ole Miss official material lists Trinidad Chambliss as its passing leader entering Texas. No authoritative late starter change was captured in this pass.", "weatherContext": "Austin final hourly forecast pending.", "decision": "PRESERVE_FROZEN_PROJECTION_HIGH_PRIORITY_RECHECK" }, { "gameId": "2026-10-24-VANDERBILT-KENTUCKY", "foundationMarginHome": 18.03609417986894, "foundationTotal": 56.73543043282676, "sagarinMarginHome": 14.349999999999998, "marginDisagreementPoints": 3.6861, "directionDisagreement": false, "publicMarketContext": "Kentucky roughly -10.5 to -11.5, total around 51.5; market is materially less bullish on Kentucky than the frozen foundation.", "materialContext": "Vanderbilt is using freshman QB Jared Curtis in current reporting; authoritative late availability remains pending.", "weatherContext": "NWS Lexington: sunny near 69, low-impact current forecast.", "decision": "PRESERVE_FROZEN_PROJECTION_HIGH_PRIORITY_RECHECK" }, { "gameId": "2026-10-24-MIAMIOH-CENTRALMICHIGAN", "foundationMarginHome": 3.2773811751798334, "foundationTotal": 48.00357634761854, "sagarinMarginHome": 0.2999999999999998, "marginDisagreementPoints": 2.9774, "directionDisagreement": false, "publicMarketContext": "DraftKings currently shows Miami (OH) -2.5 and total 39.5, reversing the frozen foundation's winner direction and creating a large total gap.", "materialContext": "Starter/availability confirmation requires a dedicated MAC personnel refresh before final-ready status.", "weatherContext": "Mount Pleasant forecast currently looks mild; use a fresh NWS capture closer to kickoff because older point-forecast retrievals exist.", "decision": "PRESERVE_FROZEN_PROJECTION_HIGH_PRIORITY_RECHECK" } ], "mediumPriority": [ {"gameId":"2026-10-24-TEXASAM-ALABAMA","foundationMarginHome":14.642956175581858,"sagarinMarginHome":10.810000000000006,"marginDisagreementPoints":3.8330,"note":"Market around Alabama -13.5, so direct market is closer to foundation than Sagarin."}, {"gameId":"2026-10-24-SANJOSSTATE-NEVADA","foundationMarginHome":8.276379274735923,"sagarinMarginHome":5.62,"marginDisagreementPoints":2.6564,"note":"Moderate benchmark disagreement."}, {"gameId":"2026-10-24-NORTHDAKOTASTATE-NEWMEXICO","foundationMarginHome":7.238274145831127,"sagarinMarginHome":9.759999999999994,"marginDisagreementPoints":2.5217,"note":"FCS/FBS matchup requires personnel and travel sanity check."}, {"gameId":"2026-10-24-VIRGINIATECH-CLEMSON","foundationMarginHome":1.9929995002965697,"sagarinMarginHome":4.519999999999999,"marginDisagreementPoints":2.5270,"note":"Low-margin game; moderate benchmark disagreement."}, {"gameId":"2026-10-24-KANSASSTATE-ARIZONASTATE","foundationMarginHome":-3.8564471886713534,"sagarinMarginHome":-1.419999999999999,"marginDisagreementPoints":2.4364,"note":"Same winner, lower confidence margin."}, {"gameId":"2026-10-24-BYU-UCF","foundationMarginHome":-2.461765654236096,"sagarinMarginHome":-4.7500000000000115,"marginDisagreementPoints":2.2882,"note":"Same winner, moderate magnitude gap."}, {"gameId":"2026-10-24-EASTERNMICHIGAN-OHIO","foundationMarginHome":14.556661762953869,"sagarinMarginHome":12.310000000000006,"marginDisagreementPoints":2.2467,"note":"Moderate margin gap."}, {"gameId":"2026-10-24-ULMONROE-TROY","foundationMarginHome":14.67825554308094,"sagarinMarginHome":16.899999999999995,"marginDisagreementPoints":2.2217,"note":"Moderate margin gap."}, {"gameId":"2026-10-24-CALIFORNIA-SMU","foundationMarginHome":11.99795691372588,"sagarinMarginHome":14.16,"marginDisagreementPoints":2.1620,"note":"Travel plus moderate benchmark gap."}, {"gameId":"2026-10-24-GEORGIASTATE-ARKANSASSTATE","foundationMarginHome":-0.5230743405623173,"sagarinMarginHome":1.5599999999999978,"marginDisagreementPoints":2.0831,"note":"Winner-direction disagreement in a near-pick'em game; treat as high uncertainty even though raw delta is modest."} ], "routinePriority": [ "2026-10-24-INDIANA-MICHIGAN", "2026-10-24-LSU-AUBURN", "2026-10-24-PITTSBURGH-MIAMI", "2026-10-24-RICE-FLORIDAATLANTIC", "2026-10-24-TEXASTECH-CINCINNATI", "2026-10-24-WESTVIRGINIA-TCU", "2026-10-24-WESTERNMICHIGAN-TOLEDO", "2026-10-24-AKRON-KENTSTATE", "2026-10-24-BAYLOR-KANSAS", "2026-10-24-IOWA-MINNESOTA", "2026-10-24-MICHIGANSTATE-UCLA", "2026-10-24-NORTHTEXAS-NAVY", "2026-10-24-SACRAMENTOSTATE-BALLSTATE", "2026-10-24-TENNESSEE-SOUTHCAROLINA", "2026-10-24-LOUISIANA-SOUTHERNMISS", "2026-10-24-OLDDOMINION-LOUISIANATECH", "2026-10-24-BOISESTATE-WASHINGTONSTATE", "2026-10-24-SANDIEGOSTATE-COLORADOSTATE", "2026-10-24-COLORADO-OKLAHOMASTATE", "2026-10-24-IOWASTATE-ARIZONA", "2026-10-24-SYRACUSE-NORTHCAROLINA", "2026-10-24-UTSA-TULANE", "2026-10-24-HOUSTON-UTAH" ], "allSaturdayGamesCovered": [ "2026-10-24-CALIFORNIA-SMU","2026-10-24-INDIANA-MICHIGAN","2026-10-24-LSU-AUBURN","2026-10-24-PITTSBURGH-MIAMI","2026-10-24-RICE-FLORIDAATLANTIC","2026-10-24-RUTGERS-NORTHWESTERN","2026-10-24-TEXASTECH-CINCINNATI","2026-10-24-WESTVIRGINIA-TCU","2026-10-24-WESTERNMICHIGAN-TOLEDO","2026-10-24-AKRON-KENTSTATE","2026-10-24-BAYLOR-KANSAS","2026-10-24-MIAMIOH-CENTRALMICHIGAN","2026-10-24-OREGON-ILLINOIS","2026-10-24-BYU-UCF","2026-10-24-BOSTONCOLLEGE-GEORGIATECH","2026-10-24-BOWLINGGREEN-BUFFALO","2026-10-24-HAWAII-NORTHERNILLINOIS","2026-10-24-IOWA-MINNESOTA","2026-10-24-MICHIGANSTATE-UCLA","2026-10-24-NORTHTEXAS-NAVY","2026-10-24-OKLAHOMA-MISSISSIPPISTATE","2026-10-24-SACRAMENTOSTATE-BALLSTATE","2026-10-24-TENNESSEE-SOUTHCAROLINA","2026-10-24-TEXASAM-ALABAMA","2026-10-24-KANSASSTATE-ARIZONASTATE","2026-10-24-EASTERNMICHIGAN-OHIO","2026-10-24-ULMONROE-TROY","2026-10-24-LOUISIANA-SOUTHERNMISS","2026-10-24-OLDDOMINION-LOUISIANATECH","2026-10-24-SANJOSSTATE-NEVADA","2026-10-24-BOISESTATE-WASHINGTONSTATE","2026-10-24-SANDIEGOSTATE-COLORADOSTATE","2026-10-24-COLORADO-OKLAHOMASTATE","2026-10-24-GEORGIASTATE-ARKANSASSTATE","2026-10-24-VIRGINIATECH-CLEMSON","2026-10-24-IOWASTATE-ARIZONA","2026-10-24-OLEMISS-TEXAS","2026-10-24-SYRACUSE-NORTHCAROLINA","2026-10-24-USC-WISCONSIN","2026-10-24-UTAHSTATE-TEXASSTATE","2026-10-24-VANDERBILT-KENTUCKY","2026-10-25-UTSA-TULANE","2026-10-25-NORTHDAKOTASTATE-NEWMEXICO","2026-10-25-HOUSTON-UTAH" ], "nextRollingActions": [ "Deep-refresh official personnel/depth/availability on the 11 high-priority games before expanding routine checks.", "Refresh stadium-level weather by kickoff proximity; do not apply unvalidated manual weather points.", "Allow direct sportsbook workflow to begin Saturday refresh as the six-hour window approaches, then tighten at three hours and one hour.", "Capture immutable FanDuel/DraftKings publication-time locks inside the final 30-minute window for every available Saturday game.", "Do not use any Tuesday-Friday Week 8 results to alter Saturday projections.", "Do not grade Week 8 until the full week is complete." ] }