{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "league": "cfb",
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 8,
  "role": "IMMUTABLE_PROSPECTIVE_RESEARCH_SHADOW_LOCK",
  "canonicalInfluence": false,
  "canonicalPromotionAuthorized": false,
  "modelId": "cfb-rebuild-foundation-v1-shadow",
  "sourceAsOf": "2026-10-20T04:00:00Z",
  "lockedAt": "2026-10-20T11:34:56.634210Z",
  "lockedParameters": {
    "alpha": 2.5,
    "halfLifeDays": 56,
    "minTeamAppearances": 4
  },
  "structuralHomeMarginAdvantage": 4.249132328925835,
  "sourcePolicy": {
    "provider": "ESPN public FBS teams + team schedules",
    "marketDataUsed": false,
    "externalRatingsUsed": false,
    "postKickoffDataUsed": false
  },
  "games": [
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-20-MIDDLETENNESSEE-FLORIDAINTERNATIONAL",
      "awayTeam": "Middle Tennessee",
      "homeTeam": "Florida International",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-20T23:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 14.372105636229959,
      "projectedHomePoints": 28.349516713342496,
      "projectedMarginHome": 13.977411077112537,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -13.977411077112537,
      "projectedTotal": 42.721622349572456,
      "homeWinProbability": 81.12113387563811,
      "projectedWinner": "Florida International",
      "projectionDigest": "d837003b6ba482064b0d61e2f4d5d519d1110c204aabdca37ab58edaf15a4570"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-20-MISSOURISTATE-DELAWARE",
      "awayTeam": "Missouri State",
      "homeTeam": "Delaware",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-20T23:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 22.546887989883015,
      "projectedHomePoints": 29.557645575997395,
      "projectedMarginHome": 7.01075758611438,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -7.01075758611438,
      "projectedTotal": 52.10453356588041,
      "homeWinProbability": 67.09639860904643,
      "projectedWinner": "Delaware",
      "projectionDigest": "c2f169318d0835551d45c972f4dbf953b36a585e1579988b846e2aae084321c8"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-20-SOUTHALABAMA-MARSHALL",
      "awayTeam": "South Alabama",
      "homeTeam": "Marshall",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-20T23:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 36.823832540523625,
      "projectedHomePoints": 32.71893046434013,
      "projectedMarginHome": -4.1049020761834925,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 4.1049020761834925,
      "projectedTotal": 69.54276300486376,
      "homeWinProbability": 39.77654933430052,
      "projectedWinner": "South Alabama",
      "projectionDigest": "1f3d9455b39a045403e0b5e7616dec22366f2c4669bb1f4903907ab43704b4b2"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-22-NEWMEXICOSTATE-SAMHOUSTON",
      "awayTeam": "New Mexico State",
      "homeTeam": "Sam Houston",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-22T00:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 21.322981138871473,
      "projectedHomePoints": 20.936490453301413,
      "projectedMarginHome": -0.3864906855700596,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 0.3864906855700596,
      "projectedTotal": 42.259471592172886,
      "homeWinProbability": 49.02673862307157,
      "projectedWinner": "New Mexico State",
      "projectionDigest": "76573e65de4174437af8f8b604ec6730d1b183804089c333a6186c8b182c26da"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-22-JAMESMADISON-APPSTATE",
      "awayTeam": "James Madison",
      "homeTeam": "App State",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-22T23:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 31.99311570132898,
      "projectedHomePoints": 21.549181361152318,
      "projectedMarginHome": -10.44393434017666,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 10.44393434017666,
      "projectedTotal": 53.542297062481296,
      "homeWinProbability": 25.48493612139827,
      "projectedWinner": "James Madison",
      "projectionDigest": "50147bbb9df5dbcabf7857833e94a663d537996bceaf0da92379c547913d8875"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-22-LIBERTY-KENNESAWSTATE",
      "awayTeam": "Liberty",
      "homeTeam": "Kennesaw State",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-22T23:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 27.88338836095161,
      "projectedHomePoints": 17.082584952508963,
      "projectedMarginHome": -10.800803408442647,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 10.800803408442647,
      "projectedTotal": 44.96597331346057,
      "homeWinProbability": 24.76715217474573,
      "projectedWinner": "Liberty",
      "projectionDigest": "f2dce35bbd39b50c1457eb063ae30cbbba26a98d6b38f7de39a2dcbc470977a7"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-22-EASTCAROLINA-MEMPHIS",
      "awayTeam": "East Carolina",
      "homeTeam": "Memphis",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-22T23:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 18.487572445077312,
      "projectedHomePoints": 34.76879531305596,
      "projectedMarginHome": 16.28122286797865,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -16.28122286797865,
      "projectedTotal": 53.25636775813327,
      "homeWinProbability": 84.79790917211139,
      "projectedWinner": "Memphis",
      "projectionDigest": "4e630ce63c2afc4ea179d3455e85efc5280b3838e8bfd6ac5feab7e23ff66409"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-23-DUKE-VIRGINIA",
      "awayTeam": "Duke",
      "homeTeam": "Virginia",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-23T23:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 19.963371409585466,
      "projectedHomePoints": 21.66255950622396,
      "projectedMarginHome": 1.699188096638494,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -1.699188096638494,
      "projectedTotal": 41.62593091580943,
      "homeWinProbability": 54.27113006427374,
      "projectedWinner": "Virginia",
      "projectionDigest": "ac8c27876df7b09dfcab509a5258b3e96fc1fae76aaf4a9ed50a925020a118be"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-23-MASSACHUSETTS-UCONN",
      "awayTeam": "Massachusetts",
      "homeTeam": "UConn",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-23T23:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 22.329458182694985,
      "projectedHomePoints": 29.61955790681207,
      "projectedMarginHome": 7.290099724117084,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -7.290099724117084,
      "projectedTotal": 51.949016089507055,
      "homeWinProbability": 67.7317593713909,
      "projectedWinner": "UConn",
      "projectionDigest": "e28b611abc7981dc14eab506b169856f8f7b94fbec5e9936fb378e9e7d9d1838"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-ARMY-TULSA",
      "awayTeam": "Army",
      "homeTeam": "Tulsa",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T00:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 27.454377301998562,
      "projectedHomePoints": 28.500337750409052,
      "projectedMarginHome": 1.04596044841049,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -1.04596044841049,
      "projectedTotal": 55.954715052407614,
      "homeWinProbability": 52.63228747434996,
      "projectedWinner": "Tulsa",
      "projectionDigest": "069fb25d7a8b71a2564fcff9e206994a79617b0d2721c695fe1773949e6a8f2e"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-AIRFORCE-WYOMING",
      "awayTeam": "Air Force",
      "homeTeam": "Wyoming",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T01:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 25.697332504760343,
      "projectedHomePoints": 22.08886781699678,
      "projectedMarginHome": -3.608464687763565,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 3.608464687763565,
      "projectedTotal": 47.78620032175712,
      "homeWinProbability": 40.99024501033256,
      "projectedWinner": "Air Force",
      "projectionDigest": "0f5d93d1b02d155e5a2bbc9f582826318cf4bdac375d8f66689b6727258e7ff9"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-NCSTATE-STANFORD",
      "awayTeam": "NC State",
      "homeTeam": "Stanford",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T02:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 31.944478973399118,
      "projectedHomePoints": 27.064741432133562,
      "projectedMarginHome": -4.8797375412655555,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 4.8797375412655555,
      "projectedTotal": 59.00922040553268,
      "homeWinProbability": 37.90224863321451,
      "projectedWinner": "NC State",
      "projectionDigest": "eb80be12b6c2c447ae176b44dcfee1fd23b9c0649df683275c5ab147a5fb9991"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-CALIFORNIA-SMU",
      "awayTeam": "California",
      "homeTeam": "SMU",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 19.18623328278222,
      "projectedHomePoints": 31.184190196508098,
      "projectedMarginHome": 11.99795691372588,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -11.99795691372588,
      "projectedTotal": 50.37042347929032,
      "homeWinProbability": 77.55977313331266,
      "projectedWinner": "SMU",
      "projectionDigest": "dcce36ec5b06381478354641845ef94a4fb7572cd33a5916d621718221091d02"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-INDIANA-MICHIGAN",
      "awayTeam": "Indiana",
      "homeTeam": "Michigan",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 24.43648522472442,
      "projectedHomePoints": 17.0773824455337,
      "projectedMarginHome": -7.359102779190721,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 7.359102779190721,
      "projectedTotal": 41.51386767025812,
      "homeWinProbability": 32.11207885235967,
      "projectedWinner": "Indiana",
      "projectionDigest": "b51652e6006c7f9e280eee8e900de233c6c935a6a9f189755cfa1a9db3989ef8"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-LSU-AUBURN",
      "awayTeam": "LSU",
      "homeTeam": "Auburn",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 26.720184573460635,
      "projectedHomePoints": 21.010170792504162,
      "projectedMarginHome": -5.710013780956473,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 5.710013780956473,
      "projectedTotal": 47.7303553659648,
      "homeWinProbability": 35.92504787836478,
      "projectedWinner": "LSU",
      "projectionDigest": "4bd3f0e23dfe88ed74cf8b3f6e5c469f830fe7cab8869fe277a57661136010b1"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-PITTSBURGH-MIAMI",
      "awayTeam": "Pittsburgh",
      "homeTeam": "Miami",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 18.83139254462059,
      "projectedHomePoints": 35.17745448011336,
      "projectedMarginHome": 16.34606193549277,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -16.34606193549277,
      "projectedTotal": 54.00884702473395,
      "homeWinProbability": 84.8939963500703,
      "projectedWinner": "Miami",
      "projectionDigest": "278795334741951ad1c9741288de44cf35c7c95ad8d0bdfd57e62b1eb4dba63d"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-RICE-FLORIDAATLANTIC",
      "awayTeam": "Rice",
      "homeTeam": "Florida Atlantic",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 23.224664340872625,
      "projectedHomePoints": 33.55010331312617,
      "projectedMarginHome": 10.325438972253547,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -10.325438972253547,
      "projectedTotal": 56.77476765399879,
      "homeWinProbability": 74.27434426664419,
      "projectedWinner": "Florida Atlantic",
      "projectionDigest": "15450779f24ba0cd139d3473762d99d0fc92b4fbc2d3ca0ba2483361f272dff4"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-RUTGERS-NORTHWESTERN",
      "awayTeam": "Rutgers",
      "homeTeam": "Northwestern",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 19.686107676904268,
      "projectedHomePoints": 39.39424858711821,
      "projectedMarginHome": 19.708140910213945,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -19.708140910213945,
      "projectedTotal": 59.080356264022484,
      "homeWinProbability": 89.32759177602682,
      "projectedWinner": "Northwestern",
      "projectionDigest": "32a860a673d1c91476c31cafc1bc90eb73df717bc525bce4eb6f7642f840a7f4"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-TEXASTECH-CINCINNATI",
      "awayTeam": "Texas Tech",
      "homeTeam": "Cincinnati",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 34.03310477569704,
      "projectedHomePoints": 25.77308843241741,
      "projectedMarginHome": -8.26001634327963,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 8.26001634327963,
      "projectedTotal": 59.80619320811445,
      "homeWinProbability": 30.10301290469517,
      "projectedWinner": "Texas Tech",
      "projectionDigest": "833c07f4f79449a0ab165d492a5e8446d106baaf87a5cc0c44b05bede8757912"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-WESTVIRGINIA-TCU",
      "awayTeam": "West Virginia",
      "homeTeam": "TCU",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 21.500315953278708,
      "projectedHomePoints": 33.00574616897681,
      "projectedMarginHome": 11.505430215698105,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -11.505430215698105,
      "projectedTotal": 54.50606212225552,
      "homeWinProbability": 76.61778372164598,
      "projectedWinner": "TCU",
      "projectionDigest": "a61fc8f9a4ba78e7da5358b38483d94e515dc46ddca424140cefb048a24f01fc"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-WESTERNMICHIGAN-TOLEDO",
      "awayTeam": "Western Michigan",
      "homeTeam": "Toledo",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 22.180381905309478,
      "projectedHomePoints": 25.374427904520648,
      "projectedMarginHome": 3.19404599921117,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -3.19404599921117,
      "projectedTotal": 47.554809809830125,
      "homeWinProbability": 57.98987279670173,
      "projectedWinner": "Toledo",
      "projectionDigest": "e4d92c94803138eabefad01295256c6535fcb9b4d878a0f085dd91c250d4b740"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-AKRON-KENTSTATE",
      "awayTeam": "Akron",
      "homeTeam": "Kent State",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T17:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 20.86589175584795,
      "projectedHomePoints": 25.304159806563742,
      "projectedMarginHome": 4.4382680507157914,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -4.4382680507157914,
      "projectedTotal": 46.17005156241169,
      "homeWinProbability": 61.03302640060072,
      "projectedWinner": "Kent State",
      "projectionDigest": "0674abc73c3d06f0dd691260f76fed568a5aad1aa4ae074e5d5b24cdb83e008c"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-BAYLOR-KANSAS",
      "awayTeam": "Baylor",
      "homeTeam": "Kansas",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T17:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 25.479148733169207,
      "projectedHomePoints": 26.285493725459244,
      "projectedMarginHome": 0.8063449922900361,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -0.8063449922900361,
      "projectedTotal": 51.76464245862845,
      "homeWinProbability": 52.02986388711369,
      "projectedWinner": "Kansas",
      "projectionDigest": "03f9e70fab2e4da61d4412460ea77a5b0b0e087adc6f1843eac96ac86b396ae3"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-MIAMIOH-CENTRALMICHIGAN",
      "awayTeam": "Miami (OH)",
      "homeTeam": "Central Michigan",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T17:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 22.363097586219354,
      "projectedHomePoints": 25.640478761399187,
      "projectedMarginHome": 3.2773811751798334,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -3.2773811751798334,
      "projectedTotal": 48.00357634761854,
      "homeWinProbability": 58.19541506492866,
      "projectedWinner": "Central Michigan",
      "projectionDigest": "9b14ab8bb28ca7f18322c4791e426f921efba9f539189b9a15238d3b2adf4588"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-OREGON-ILLINOIS",
      "awayTeam": "Oregon",
      "homeTeam": "Illinois",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 28.656000775582196,
      "projectedHomePoints": 25.528127506555,
      "projectedMarginHome": -3.127873269027198,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 3.127873269027198,
      "projectedTotal": 54.184128282137195,
      "homeWinProbability": 42.17349476125669,
      "projectedWinner": "Oregon",
      "projectionDigest": "611fe222699256ba13676866f8ebf92bad5f4caf8c18aac3c8fd70f377d579d7"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-BYU-UCF",
      "awayTeam": "BYU",
      "homeTeam": "UCF",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 23.698637202446378,
      "projectedHomePoints": 21.23687154821028,
      "projectedMarginHome": -2.461765654236096,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 2.461765654236096,
      "projectedTotal": 44.93550875065666,
      "homeWinProbability": 43.82502881130409,
      "projectedWinner": "BYU",
      "projectionDigest": "876abdaa9c4638018b01f9c128ed3ee1547ba78f213702f0cf5f6dcc564efc42"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-BOSTONCOLLEGE-GEORGIATECH",
      "awayTeam": "Boston College",
      "homeTeam": "Georgia Tech",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 23.54214981233948,
      "projectedHomePoints": 25.464306119722416,
      "projectedMarginHome": 1.9221563073829344,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -1.9221563073829344,
      "projectedTotal": 49.0064559320619,
      "homeWinProbability": 54.82900366821949,
      "projectedWinner": "Georgia Tech",
      "projectionDigest": "e7eff4f75aea074f20a636cd56f00608551057f9dd6919b1cef2bbeb797ef7f4"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-BOWLINGGREEN-BUFFALO",
      "awayTeam": "Bowling Green",
      "homeTeam": "Buffalo",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 18.931522481399405,
      "projectedHomePoints": 30.350224630782492,
      "projectedMarginHome": 11.418702149383087,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -11.418702149383087,
      "projectedTotal": 49.2817471121819,
      "homeWinProbability": 76.44967057204113,
      "projectedWinner": "Buffalo",
      "projectionDigest": "893df08229a2a0e0eabcc5427756adc8f3393446f039fcc45dd37e5d2dccca64"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-HAWAII-NORTHERNILLINOIS",
      "awayTeam": "Hawai'i",
      "homeTeam": "Northern Illinois",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 20.972110034484366,
      "projectedHomePoints": 22.284519960138915,
      "projectedMarginHome": 1.3124099256545492,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -1.3124099256545492,
      "projectedTotal": 43.25662999462328,
      "homeWinProbability": 53.30146299994687,
      "projectedWinner": "Northern Illinois",
      "projectionDigest": "8bdfc3c88a77cc51b0d9e7ec3fe9c544ff2b839d2b6b35f32738160b14e58344"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-IOWA-MINNESOTA",
      "awayTeam": "Iowa",
      "homeTeam": "Minnesota",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 25.01437121633099,
      "projectedHomePoints": 20.573545069684823,
      "projectedMarginHome": -4.440826146646167,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 4.440826146646167,
      "projectedTotal": 45.58791628601581,
      "homeWinProbability": 38.96077926974407,
      "projectedWinner": "Iowa",
      "projectionDigest": "fa565396a5f0d6e40af0721dadd59f1fcb84dad37c53cf133e48d27f08e124d6"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-MICHIGANSTATE-UCLA",
      "awayTeam": "Michigan State",
      "homeTeam": "UCLA",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 14.686124118729413,
      "projectedHomePoints": 31.5810942672075,
      "projectedMarginHome": 16.894970148478087,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -16.894970148478087,
      "projectedTotal": 46.267218385936914,
      "homeWinProbability": 85.69122816340618,
      "projectedWinner": "UCLA",
      "projectionDigest": "f380117808f067db8f3494e201878f6f1ef5cf775f2ef019e8420713fe2eeffb"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-NORTHTEXAS-NAVY",
      "awayTeam": "North Texas",
      "homeTeam": "Navy",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 31.28564924904464,
      "projectedHomePoints": 30.52527641775321,
      "projectedMarginHome": -0.7603728312914271,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 0.7603728312914271,
      "projectedTotal": 61.81092566679785,
      "homeWinProbability": 48.08577323532829,
      "projectedWinner": "North Texas",
      "projectionDigest": "50b840afc38208d17930e21768804292ace06c0c2771207639aa0a84f374e0aa"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-OKLAHOMA-MISSISSIPPISTATE",
      "awayTeam": "Oklahoma",
      "homeTeam": "Mississippi State",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 22.556397184110185,
      "projectedHomePoints": 26.80080683069104,
      "projectedMarginHome": 4.244409646580856,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -4.244409646580856,
      "projectedTotal": 49.357204014801226,
      "homeWinProbability": 60.56280123270288,
      "projectedWinner": "Mississippi State",
      "projectionDigest": "ebfe6cc5b912bc6578fd82e381c720013b5a273bd399f1435caacdb0906208d7"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-SACRAMENTOSTATE-BALLSTATE",
      "awayTeam": "Sacramento State",
      "homeTeam": "Ball State",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 21.03810989675561,
      "projectedHomePoints": 34.17408304603971,
      "projectedMarginHome": 13.135973149284101,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -13.135973149284101,
      "projectedTotal": 55.212192942795326,
      "homeWinProbability": 79.65186562061261,
      "projectedWinner": "Ball State",
      "projectionDigest": "467d17f653d84aacd0c4dc2cc9e39be3ed62d7a00f3fc153618eeeff9a1f5cb7"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-TENNESSEE-SOUTHCAROLINA",
      "awayTeam": "Tennessee",
      "homeTeam": "South Carolina",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 26.645525261306442,
      "projectedHomePoints": 26.562994163350165,
      "projectedMarginHome": -0.08253109795627722,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 0.08253109795627722,
      "projectedTotal": 53.20851942465661,
      "homeWinProbability": 49.79215039586009,
      "projectedWinner": "Tennessee",
      "projectionDigest": "ff4afb941720d8d9da6bc6fcfa62836ec76791f2b67e86e23eec0ed5ec1503c8"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-TEXASAM-ALABAMA",
      "awayTeam": "Texas A&M",
      "homeTeam": "Alabama",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 18.60716035896536,
      "projectedHomePoints": 33.25011653454722,
      "projectedMarginHome": 14.642956175581858,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -14.642956175581858,
      "projectedTotal": 51.85727689351258,
      "homeWinProbability": 82.23566896482421,
      "projectedWinner": "Alabama",
      "projectionDigest": "0bc476e40aaf2ae2d71020e7489734d06bc996142a056c9f486894e5b2f6fac0"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-KANSASSTATE-ARIZONASTATE",
      "awayTeam": "Kansas State",
      "homeTeam": "Arizona State",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:45:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 31.42489240204314,
      "projectedHomePoints": 27.56844521337179,
      "projectedMarginHome": -3.8564471886713534,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 3.8564471886713534,
      "projectedTotal": 58.99333761541493,
      "homeWinProbability": 40.38281710409491,
      "projectedWinner": "Kansas State",
      "projectionDigest": "6b098a022b8588e0511a21733495e26b2b6b7831fd3967dbded871f247e740df"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-EASTERNMICHIGAN-OHIO",
      "awayTeam": "Eastern Michigan",
      "homeTeam": "Ohio",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T20:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 18.714754192561298,
      "projectedHomePoints": 33.27141595551517,
      "projectedMarginHome": 14.556661762953869,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -14.556661762953869,
      "projectedTotal": 51.98617014807647,
      "homeWinProbability": 82.09354774143213,
      "projectedWinner": "Ohio",
      "projectionDigest": "fdaacdefad184225aba8e52e7b0e350a369b6f96b3371c1aead652027ab19372"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-ULMONROE-TROY",
      "awayTeam": "UL Monroe",
      "homeTeam": "Troy",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T20:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 19.14399956717379,
      "projectedHomePoints": 33.82225511025473,
      "projectedMarginHome": 14.67825554308094,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -14.67825554308094,
      "projectedTotal": 52.96625467742852,
      "homeWinProbability": 82.29359900246187,
      "projectedWinner": "Troy",
      "projectionDigest": "717b742735a8750cf9bedf12eba328895892ea283b01aae5f25e72d9db583d10"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-LOUISIANA-SOUTHERNMISS",
      "awayTeam": "Louisiana",
      "homeTeam": "Southern Miss",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T21:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 32.17161742309052,
      "projectedHomePoints": 21.564261650518553,
      "projectedMarginHome": -10.607355772571964,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 10.607355772571964,
      "projectedTotal": 53.73587907360907,
      "homeWinProbability": 25.154895077542417,
      "projectedWinner": "Louisiana",
      "projectionDigest": "e2c47b9299e80d9c1e8f0e7c91adf4f16cc84c97246bdba7ee3480db4729ed23"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-OLDDOMINION-LOUISIANATECH",
      "awayTeam": "Old Dominion",
      "homeTeam": "Louisiana Tech",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T21:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 16.277285215569464,
      "projectedHomePoints": 29.275989132957946,
      "projectedMarginHome": 12.998703917388482,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -12.998703917388482,
      "projectedTotal": 45.55327434852741,
      "homeWinProbability": 79.40586287200105,
      "projectedWinner": "Louisiana Tech",
      "projectionDigest": "db419e8e6fc0e2721f3cf46f260d5e250c872095884349baa3ddcb8121e59531"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-SANJOSSTATE-NEVADA",
      "awayTeam": "San Jos\u00e9 State",
      "homeTeam": "Nevada",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T21:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 19.44773551002043,
      "projectedHomePoints": 27.724114784756352,
      "projectedMarginHome": 8.276379274735923,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -8.276379274735923,
      "projectedTotal": 47.17185029477678,
      "homeWinProbability": 69.93294839224116,
      "projectedWinner": "Nevada",
      "projectionDigest": "9fac7b02504d92673d051574404f79c46810dbf92cb01d0effabd6f8809d258a"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-BOISESTATE-WASHINGTONSTATE",
      "awayTeam": "Boise State",
      "homeTeam": "Washington State",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T22:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 33.02168724861863,
      "projectedHomePoints": 21.18428758007532,
      "projectedMarginHome": -11.837399668543313,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 11.837399668543313,
      "projectedTotal": 54.205974828693954,
      "homeWinProbability": 22.74491349135514,
      "projectedWinner": "Boise State",
      "projectionDigest": "17b3526936202ab8c1b1ecc096e5483afe8aa46a334d121c7a2050091f491cb4"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-SANDIEGOSTATE-COLORADOSTATE",
      "awayTeam": "San Diego State",
      "homeTeam": "Colorado State",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T22:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 32.55642020340178,
      "projectedHomePoints": 34.78538419567203,
      "projectedMarginHome": 2.228963992270252,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -2.228963992270252,
      "projectedTotal": 67.34180439907381,
      "homeWinProbability": 55.59506782002761,
      "projectedWinner": "Colorado State",
      "projectionDigest": "19226231c83683368377a077312cce6f77a8ea14e8667b9db672f9f3ded83ba8"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-COLORADO-OKLAHOMASTATE",
      "awayTeam": "Colorado",
      "homeTeam": "Oklahoma State",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T23:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 17.85830497572003,
      "projectedHomePoints": 31.51694033779676,
      "projectedMarginHome": 13.65863536207673,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -13.65863536207673,
      "projectedTotal": 49.37524531351679,
      "homeWinProbability": 80.5723701189769,
      "projectedWinner": "Oklahoma State",
      "projectionDigest": "eb47553e0448831c0b15ab8af29eb95ec06c83ad0d41ca498aeacc22e272426c"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-GEORGIASTATE-ARKANSASSTATE",
      "awayTeam": "Georgia State",
      "homeTeam": "Arkansas State",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T23:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 28.98458292031335,
      "projectedHomePoints": 28.461508579751033,
      "projectedMarginHome": -0.5230743405623173,
      "projectedSpreadHome": 0.5230743405623173,
      "projectedTotal": 57.446091500064384,
      "homeWinProbability": 48.68290214629812,
      "projectedWinner": "Georgia State",
      "projectionDigest": "6b8ad3544d1382e614f9272b6b0d4036cbba4861fae1cec8de76667f3eeea30f"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-VIRGINIATECH-CLEMSON",
      "awayTeam": "Virginia Tech",
      "homeTeam": "Clemson",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T23:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 24.26185173936165,
      "projectedHomePoints": 26.25485123965822,
      "projectedMarginHome": 1.9929995002965697,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -1.9929995002965697,
      "projectedTotal": 50.51670297901987,
      "homeWinProbability": 55.00606149288204,
      "projectedWinner": "Clemson",
      "projectionDigest": "6d34b2fae6bb25d048cb029f911be56b3d982e1e629c7fb8c0df8c280d73219d"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-IOWASTATE-ARIZONA",
      "awayTeam": "Iowa State",
      "homeTeam": "Arizona",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T23:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 22.04819731183695,
      "projectedHomePoints": 31.577151612829113,
      "projectedMarginHome": 9.528954300992162,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -9.528954300992162,
      "projectedTotal": 53.62534892466606,
      "homeWinProbability": 72.6261752505873,
      "projectedWinner": "Arizona",
      "projectionDigest": "8919d0dcc7d046d19a690fcb556e1686442d8a20d3d9ba70878d472b454fd3cc"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-OLEMISS-TEXAS",
      "awayTeam": "Ole Miss",
      "homeTeam": "Texas",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T23:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 24.882717574285667,
      "projectedHomePoints": 27.20596600596806,
      "projectedMarginHome": 2.3232484316823943,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -2.3232484316823943,
      "projectedTotal": 52.08868358025373,
      "homeWinProbability": 55.83007966805449,
      "projectedWinner": "Texas",
      "projectionDigest": "ad6572b61f29fb48e2796adc8dc64c2e8260d68c705f7d81a62b7f187f452f71"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-SYRACUSE-NORTHCAROLINA",
      "awayTeam": "Syracuse",
      "homeTeam": "North Carolina",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T23:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 20.863541475426736,
      "projectedHomePoints": 31.22067320677683,
      "projectedMarginHome": 10.357131731350094,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -10.357131731350094,
      "projectedTotal": 52.084214682203566,
      "homeWinProbability": 74.3388426924573,
      "projectedWinner": "North Carolina",
      "projectionDigest": "824ccd921e6913a91dee810ed0c52708db8951d8c2b233f93e5cc74b8a5e104f"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-USC-WISCONSIN",
      "awayTeam": "USC",
      "homeTeam": "Wisconsin",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T23:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 23.900514481712563,
      "projectedHomePoints": 29.733304058648827,
      "projectedMarginHome": 5.832789576936264,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -5.832789576936264,
      "projectedTotal": 53.63381854036139,
      "homeWinProbability": 64.36430027868262,
      "projectedWinner": "Wisconsin",
      "projectionDigest": "3521b6da0b466cdb4fcd769aef3a2e076940c72ae3a15000fdec76bd2b8b02f2"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-UTAHSTATE-TEXASSTATE",
      "awayTeam": "Utah State",
      "homeTeam": "Texas State",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T23:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 21.866478647138784,
      "projectedHomePoints": 29.775403476603792,
      "projectedMarginHome": 7.908924829465008,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -7.908924829465008,
      "projectedTotal": 51.641882123742576,
      "homeWinProbability": 69.12076151981363,
      "projectedWinner": "Texas State",
      "projectionDigest": "9291d1b7f9363a56c73958df8a53407925a3c4f53cbcde7d328dd109eb83d9b2"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-24-VANDERBILT-KENTUCKY",
      "awayTeam": "Vanderbilt",
      "homeTeam": "Kentucky",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-24T23:30:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 19.34966812647891,
      "projectedHomePoints": 37.38576230634785,
      "projectedMarginHome": 18.03609417986894,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -18.03609417986894,
      "projectedTotal": 56.73543043282676,
      "homeWinProbability": 87.25621374545102,
      "projectedWinner": "Kentucky",
      "projectionDigest": "587838e10404f4a2af34ccaa211a61b92b3dcb4c3be97ac3d3090ded1bc4375a"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-25-UTSA-TULANE",
      "awayTeam": "UTSA",
      "homeTeam": "Tulane",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-25T00:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 21.54534976471279,
      "projectedHomePoints": 26.442251942291392,
      "projectedMarginHome": 4.896902177578603,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -4.896902177578603,
      "projectedTotal": 47.98760170700418,
      "homeWinProbability": 62.138969617866756,
      "projectedWinner": "Tulane",
      "projectionDigest": "a63b1830e30a0375df153b4fa621878d02d9096fcfcd99559de0b5b0e2429ba4"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-25-NORTHDAKOTASTATE-NEWMEXICO",
      "awayTeam": "North Dakota State",
      "homeTeam": "New Mexico",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-25T02:00:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 17.913232166826532,
      "projectedHomePoints": 25.15150631265766,
      "projectedMarginHome": 7.238274145831127,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -7.238274145831127,
      "projectedTotal": 43.06473847948419,
      "homeWinProbability": 67.61426598904106,
      "projectedWinner": "New Mexico",
      "projectionDigest": "b920b10e37670fe796ecbc663efdc522b5ee1d11e7955a550f98eb2aae5d26e9"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "2026-10-25-HOUSTON-UTAH",
      "awayTeam": "Houston",
      "homeTeam": "Utah",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-25T02:15:00Z",
      "projectedAwayPoints": 24.875394243509085,
      "projectedHomePoints": 30.16644200807132,
      "projectedMarginHome": 5.2910477645622365,
      "projectedSpreadHome": -5.2910477645622365,
      "projectedTotal": 55.041836251580406,
      "homeWinProbability": 63.0815644910804,
      "projectedWinner": "Utah",
      "projectionDigest": "15b827902593d6d6604ce90eef0a4fba9aa97974c10a64986f0af10f93bca77f"
    }
  ],
  "gradingPolicy": "After results, grade these exact frozen research projections separately. Never rewrite them and never merge their record into the established canonical record.",
  "lockDigest": "72d0aa99176904f681264e69f57260152607914f712a1686d2cdaaf89af3115b"
}
